In a perfect world, Alabama’s gubernatorial contest in the November election would be more than a ceremonial formality. Things would be heating up. The two nominees would be barnstorming every nook and cranny of Alabama for the next three-and-a-half months.
It is not a perfect world. We don’t look to be getting that any time soon.
If it were a possibility, it would have started with Alabama’s Republican primaries. Instead, it was an exhibition contest for incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey to show off her political might.
And here we are with a gubernatorial matchup between Republican nominee Ivey and Democratic nominee Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox.
Does anyone care? Are people clamoring for a contentious race? That doesn’t appear to be the case.
Keep in mind that with the daily distraction of Donald Trump and the Washington, D.C., there isn’t a lot of political bandwidth remaining for the public to dedicate to this gubernatorial race.
Nonetheless, Maddox issued a letter to Ivey on Tuesday with the ambitious challenge of four events – two debates and two town halls.
She replied with a statement by mocking the 45-year-old and suggested he debate himself.
That tells us a lot of what we need to know. First, a formal public request instead of some negotiation behind the scenes reeks of a desperate stunt, something a candidate with an uphill climb might offer. Second, Ivey’s response shows she doesn’t see him as a legitimate threat.
If you believe the sparse polling on the contest, Ivey’s likely assumption is valid. She leads Maddox by a 53-to-28 percent margin, according to an Atlantic Media & Research survey.
Even if that poll is an outlier, one would have to assume Ivey has a sizable lead. She is the Republican nominee in a Republican state and dominated her primary contest by avoiding a runoff against three well-funded challengers.
Now that we’re at the general election stage, we’re going to hear Ivey is obligated to debate Maddox from the purveyors of political thought that dominate Alabama’s left-leaning political coverage. (Keep in mind, they tried this before in the primary, and it failed.)
The only way Ivey will get on a debate stage with Maddox is if he gives her a reason. Since she is dominating the contest, there is no incentive for Kay Ivey to debate. The best outcome the Ivey campaign could hope for by showing up for a debate is to what, move ahead of Maddox and win by 50 points?
With or without a debate, polling will likely tighten. Some Alabama Democrats think they can ride the momentum from the 2017 U.S. Senate special election. That might be worth a few votes here and there in some precincts around the state.
Even with a tightening of the race, Kay Ivey is a big favorite. Maddox needs her to be a not-quite-as-big favorite.
He still has time, and it’s not like there won’t be an open stage somewhere in Alabama through November 5 to host a gubernatorial debate if the opportunity presented itself.
If Maddox wants to make up ground to better his chances for a debate, he’ll have to sway Republican voters to vote for a Democrat. That means looking beyond the friendly confines of the Alabama Press Association convention or Scottsboro’s 5th Congressional District Democrats town hall meeting — two of his last public appearances.
He probably already has those voters locked up. That’s his solid 28 percent.
My advice to Walt Maddox: You don’t have to make it all up to get to the debate stage, meaning it doesn’t have to be a 50-50 tie. However, you will at least need to be within striking of 40 percent. Even then, that’s 60-40 split, which is still a textbook definition of a landslide.
Don’t be fooled by the political pundits and reporters that write for AL(dot)com or The Montgomery Advertiser. They may sing your praises for your bold challenge to Kay Ivey. Winning the media in this state won’t get you to 1142 South Perry Street.
Furthermore, Kay Ivey won’t be shamed or guilted by the media into debating you. We learned that lesson months ago.
@Jeff_Poor is a graduate of Auburn University and is the editor of Breitbart TV.
