Trump’s 2024 presidential betting odds only budge slightly after verdict

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May 31, 2024

Thursday afternoon, former President Donald Trump was convicted in New York on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The verdict made Trump the first-ever former president to be convicted of a felony.

Generally, the betting market is a fairly good indicator of who the next president will be. In 2020, just days before the election, many books had President Biden as a -250 favorite (an implied probability of 71.4 percent) and Trump around +190 (an implied probability of roughly 34 percent).

Things can shift dramatically over the course of six months and the long-term market effect of the guilty verdict remains to be seen. However, Trump’s odds in the 2024 election were impacted slightly on Thursday.

In most markets, the former president entered the day with a roughly 53 percent implied probability of victory. According to ElectionBettingOdds.com, news of the conviction dropped his odds to around 50 percent, marking a 3.3 percent decrease.

President Biden, on the other hand, entered Thursday with just a 38 percent implied probability of victory. That number has risen to over 40 percent overnight.

Despite the conviction, Trump still holds a fairly significant advantage in the odds market with roughly six months until the election.

Michael Brauner is a Senior Sports Analyst and Contributing Writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @MBraunerWNSP and hear him every weekday morning from 6 to 9 a.m. on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5, available free online.

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