After a rocky year thus far in the United States Senate, speculation is already ramping up about whether Sen. Doug Jones (D-Mountain Brook) will even seek re-election in 2020.
Ultimately, if President Trump decides to seek a second term of his own, all Alabama Democrats might as well stay at home when it comes to their chances at winning statewide office that election cycle. But even with a less galvanizing candidate, Mike Pence for example, at the top of the ticket, statewide Republicans in Alabama are assured of winning in a presidential election year.
While Jones would be boosted by incumbency, with fundraising strength and name recognition mainly, his time in office is now the second biggest detriment to his candidacy, just behind being a Democrat in a deep-red state. The bottom line is that Jones has a slightly above zero percent shot of winning if he runs again — which brings us to the more realistic options of what his political future could entail.
First, Alabama’s junior senator has been named as a dark horse presidential contender by prominent political prognosticator Nate Silver. That is not going to happen in a Democratic Party that is becoming more and more far-left as the earth rotates.
However, Jones does have a plausible outside chance of being a vice presidential nominee to someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) or Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). The party will be seeking some type of balance (regionally and demographically), and Jones could check some boxes for working-class white voters in the Midwest and in swing states. But, again, this is a long shot. Jones is just about as boring as Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016, but Kaine’s resume and state-of-residence dwarf Jones’ appeal.
The most likely scenario in which Jones stays in a public office is if Trump loses reelection. In this circumstance, Jones could easily land himself on the shortlist to be a Democratic president’s attorney general (ironic given whose seat Jones temporarily occupies). You have to think the prosecutor of the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing would be an attractive hire to be the country’s top law enforcement officer under this scenario.
Next, you have a few inevitable private sector opportunities. Jones could pull a Joyce Vance, and itch his political scratch by serving as an MSNBC talking head – they would love a former senator that they could claim as a “moderate” voice. This route would also leave Jones time to write a book, teach at a law school or maybe even go back into the practice of law in Alabama. Then again, Jones might have the D.C. bug now. He could become a lobbyist and make big money on K Street as a former senator.
With all that being said, do not discount the notion that Jones will run again irrespective of his chances of winning. From all accounts, he loves being a senator. And it is hard to give up being a member of the “World’s Greatest Country Club.”
What Jones would do well to remember is that regardless of who he runs against or if Trump is at the top of the Republican ticket or not, in a presidential election cycle, turnout is just way too high for statewide Democrats to have a legitimate chance. Especially when people associate you with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
Sean Ross is a staff writer for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn
