When Chris Christie boasted in Boston last week about his winning ways, he was ostensibly arguing his ability to carry Republicans to the White House in a general election.
But the self-assured New Jersey governor will only get that chance if he can master the rubric of a Republican primary first, which means plotting an early state victory plan.
Of the first three states conducting contests, New Hampshire holds the most promise for a Christie candidacy. His proximity to the Granite State in addition to its inclination to support more centrist GOP candidates makes the first in the nation primary central to any Christie 2016 strategy.
When Christie endorsed Mitt Romney in October 2011, the future nominee brought him to New Hampshire to do it. It’s no wonder he sits atop of the polls there. If Christie runs in 2016, it’s difficult — if not impossible — to imagine him as the nominee without a win in New Hampshire.
The more puzzling quandary for Christie and his political team is how to handle the two other states that bookend the first primary — Iowa and South Carolina.
The first question Team Christie will have to confront will be whether they play in Iowa at all. (Christie adviser Mike DuHaime declined to engage questions for this story.)
The last two GOP victors of the caucuses — Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008 — were ardent social conservatives, backed by gritty grassroots networks of evangelicals, pastors and home-schoolers and bolstered by a relentless retail repertoire. At first glance, the Hawkeye State does not look like hospitable turf for the bawdy, biting Christie who has cultivated much of his personality around losing his patience.
He could easily point to Romney and John McCain as reasons Iowa is no longer required. He could mock the straw poll and carp about the caucus as quirky, bogus, byzantine process no longer representative of the mainstream Republican Party. He could bypass the state fair in Des Moines for the dairy in . . . Derry, N.H.
“Skipping Iowa is a legitimate strategy for Christie,” asserted Kyle Kondik, a political analyst for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Yet if Christie chooses to skip the first in the nation caucus state, he essentially runs the risk of undercutting his main rationale for running in the first place: That he’s a winner.
If he’s so electable, his critics will crow, why’s he running from an uphill fight? How can he be the national candidate who can rip away Hillary Clinton’s inevitability if he decides to take a pass on a place because he doesn’t think he can win? Iowa in the fall is a swingable state after all. Chris Christie, the bully? More like, Chris Christie, the scaredy cat. You can imagine the New York Post header now. And, oh those unrelenting calls and pesky quotes from Terry Branstad.
“I think he’s going to get a lot of pressure to write off Iowa, but if he’s going to be the national candidate who can unify the party, then he’s got to show he compete around the country,” said Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s 2008 campaign manager, who argued Christie should compete everywhere. ”He can’t start off by being a regional candidate.”
But therein lies the risk of his own inevitability. If Christie is hovering at the top of both national and New Hampshire polls, a loss in Iowa — or worse — a fourth or fifth place finish there — could demonstrably diminish him in the eyes of some voters, but most consequentially, the media.
A Chris Christie concession speech is something we haven’t yet seen. And because of his cocky, impolitic persona — the image of a humbled Christie congratulating Rand Paul or Ted Cruz, would be quite staggering for the political psyche.
Which makes his Iowa decision one of the first and potentially most consequential calls he’ll make of the entire campaign.
And don’t think for a Hawkeye minute he can fake it — by throwing ads on the air and sending surrogates to the fair. Iowans expect to see Christie in the flesh — or they’ll find reasons not to like him.
“Christie’s recent alliances with President Obama may also hurt him in Iowa if he can’t spend the time here,” warned Gwen Ecklund, the Crawford County Iowa GOP chair who noted that Christie has been well-received during past visits.
Any calculation in writing off Iowa would have to involve converting in South Carolina — the first in the south primary. It’s feasible to scrap one of the first three states, it’s unheard of to eliminate two.
Operatives opinions’ diverge on Christie’s electability in a Palmetto State primary — and its history is mixed. While Newt Gingrich rode the last puff of anti-Romney rage to a resounding victory in 2012, the state has also been relatively kind to establishment and front-running pols like John McCain (in 2008), George W. Bush (in 2000) and Bob Dole (in 1996).
Bursting out of New Hampshire with an emphatic win — say, double digits — could give Christie a head of steam as he bulldozes south. Even more, Christie could benefit from a large field to his right to divide up the conservatives in the Upstate and sneak through on the backs of Lowcountry folk.
Yet some of the Republicans I encountered in the region were hostile to a Christie candidacy. Their image of him is the loud Yankee from Jersey who pals around with President Obama. There’s little polling to back this up, but many believe Christie would start out in South Carolina from the middle of the pack.
“I wouldn’t give great odds to Christie winning South Carolina,” said Kondik.
Another Beltway lobbyist with ties to South Carolina put it this way: “Christie in South Carolina is a no go, maybe comes in third, fourth or fifth. There will be some establishment moderates who want to go with a governor, but the tea party fever runs high in South Carolina. They will be curious about Christie, but they will not support him for president.”
But if Christie’s modeling his approach after McCain 2008, second or third in South Carolina isn’t good enough. Romney — who like McCain faltered in Iowa — booted the Palmetto State, but was able to rebound in Florida. But a Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush on the ballot likely swipes the Sunshine State off the table.
And if Chris Christie is waiting around for Florida (or Nevada) for a comeback, he’s essentially Rudy Giuliani.
So while Christie chest-thumps about his electoral scoreboard — yes, he matches-up best against Clinton in the general — his winning streak looks strikingly shaky when perusing the 2016 GOP primary map.
That map, of course beings in Iowa. And whichever option he chooses there will be cited by the political pros in hindsight as either one of the smartest or dumbest strategic decisions he made.
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
