A new poll commissioned by the conservative-leaning Alabama Forestry Association (AFA) shows two state legislators sitting atop the field in the crowded 6th Congressional District Republican Primary, which is likely headed for a runoff.
The poll surveyed 401 likely Republican voters in AL-06 by telephone last week, and has a margin of error of 4.9% with a 95% level of confidence.
So with just under a month to go before the June 3rd election, here’s where the survey indicated things stood last week:
Paul DeMarco: 24%
Scott Beason: 17%
Chad Mathis: 14%
Will Brooke: 8%
Gary Palmer: 7%
Robert Shattuck: >2%
Tom Vigneulle: >2%
“DeMarco benefits from the highest positive name identification — 62% overall, 51% positive — and receives solid support from the ‘over the mountain’ communities of Vestavia Hills and Hoover,” explained AFA’s head of governmental affairs Tom Saunders. “Beason benefits from solid support in Gardendale and Blount County. He has the second highest name identification at 51% overall. Mathis’ overall name recognition is at 35%.”
Saunders said the data indicates that a runoff is highly likely, with no candidate getting close to the 50% threshold needed to win the Primary outright.
“The three most probable candidates to make the runoff are DeMarco, Beason or Mathis,” said Saunders.
From there, the pollster, Larry Powell of UAB, asked respondents to tell him which candidates they would choose in the potential head-to-head runoff matchups.
Here’s what Powell found:
DeMarco: 32% — Beason: 21%
DeMarco: 35% — Mathis: 17%
Beason: 24% — Mathis: 18%
Over a quarter of the voters are still undecided in the Primary. That leaves a huge opportunity for candidates to gain some ground in the final weeks, especially campaigns who have been hoarding cash for a final push at the end.
“It appears that DeMarco is the front runner, but that there will be a runoff,” Saunders concluded. “If that’s the case, Beason most likely has the best opportunity to be competitive with DeMarco. The poll also indicated that over 27% of the voters are undecided at this point, so their votes will most likely have an important impact on the race’s outcome.”
Who are you supporting? Let us know in the comment section below or by tweeting @YHPolitics.
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