We all remember the “Choose Your Own Adventure” series, the children’s books where you get to decide the path your character takes and experience the consequences of your decision.
Republicans across the country have decided to continue making bad decision after bad decision, ignoring the evidence in front of them, and turn their pages to the “blame the obscure candidate” so they can keep ignoring the reality in which they live. Republicans have issues, mainly that President Donald Trump is an unprincipled and erratic lightening rod. His behavior fires up Democrats, both their base and their moderates, Republicans on the other hand, are suffering because of a disaffected sect within the Republican Party likes Trump’s policies but hate Trump’s behavior and leadership style.
This is leading to a mountain of evidence that should be telling Republicans the midterms will be ugly, the Weekly Standard lays it out pretty well: “In most special elections during the Trump era, Republicans have under-performed the Trump’s 2016 margin. Saccone is no exception—the election was essentially tied in a district that Trump won in a blowout.”
There are 114/119-ish seats in the House where Donald Trump won with a bigger margin than Trump won PA-18. Obviously, Republicans will not lose all those seats, and Democrats and their media allies can’t focus on those races as they have over the last 14 months. But they Democrats don’t need all those seats, they only need 23 of them. Last week, President Trump said “the world is watching“, the question now is “What path will Republicans choose?”
The details:
— In all the special elections since Trump’s election Republicans have under-performed by 13 points, and that is before Tuesday’s 20-point drop.
— More incumbent Republicans have announced the will be stepping down this election cycle (41) than have since 2000, the most of the 2000s was 31 in 2014.
— Polling shows generic Democrats are leading generic Republicans when the question is who do you want to control Congress by an average of 7.7 points.
— The Cook’s Political Report lists PA-18 as a +11 for Republicans, Alabama Republicans have little to worry about as all their districts are safer than that with Bradley Byrne’s district being the closest at +15.
Dale Jackson hosts a daily radio show from 7-11 a.m. on NewsTalk 770 AM/92.5 FM WVNN and a weekly television show, “Guerrilla Politics,” on WAAY-TV, both in North Alabama. Follow him @TheDaleJackson.
