The latest models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predict far fewer hospitalizations and deaths from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the state of Alabama.
Often cited by health professionals and government officials across the country, the research group at the University of Washington at one time predicted nearly 8,000 deaths in Alabama and hospital bed shortages in the thousands.
Updated models now project that there could be as many as 634 deaths from COVID-19 and 1,328 hospital beds needed to treat patients with the virus. IMHE notes that there are 5,743 beds available, which would leave the state with plenty of space for patients should these projections continue to hold.
As of 5:30 a.m. on Wednesday, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) had reported 2,197 total COVID-19 cases and 64 deaths.
ADPH has recorded 271 hospitalizations since March 13.
Jefferson County has the most confirmed cases at 461. It has 12 reported deaths. Lee County has 133 confirmed cases and five reported deaths.
The United States has recorded 369,069 cases and 11,008 total deaths as of Wednesday morning.
Nursing homes continue to be an area of concern for Alabama health officials.
The Alabama Nursing Home Association (ANHA) announced this week that positive tests have occurred in 31 facilities. While that equates to a positive test in just over 13% of the state’s 231 nursing homes, CDC data suggests older individuals are affected more severely by COVID-19. Of those 65 and older, 4-11% perish when contracting the virus. That number rises to 10-27% for anyone 85 and older.
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ANHA CEO Brandon Farmer believes nursing home cases will rise in the coming days.
“I predict the number of nursing homes with cases will grow as more tests are administered and the results are returned,” he said.
IMHE projects that Alabama’s peak day for resource use to care for COVID-19 patients will be April 20. The model predicts the state will reach its peak in daily deaths on April 22. It predicts 27 deaths on that day.
Tim Howe is an owner of Yellowhammer Multimedia
