The Mike Huckabee for president movement is picking up steam.
Conservative activists trying to convince him to take another shot at the White House in 2016 have commissioned polls showing the former Arkansas governor leading Republican primary races in the two key early primary states of Iowa and South Carolina.
In Iowa, the caucus state he won in 2008, Huckabee leads his nearest competitor, Gov. Chris Christie, by seven points. In South Carolina, his advantage is even bigger, at nine points. Both polls, shared first with The RUN, were conducted by GOP strategist Bob Wickers, a former Huckabee political adviser.
“Should Mike Huckabee become a candidate for president in 2016 he is well-positioned to win two of the most important early contests,” Wickers writes in a memo accompanying the results. ”As a former governor of Arkansas for over a decade, Mike Huckabee embodies the type of candidate Iowa and South Carolina voters are looking for in 2016.”
The full IOWA results: 402 likely GOP voters, live telephone interviews, Dec. 4-7:
Mike Huckabee 21%
Chris Christie 14%
Ted Cruz 14%
Rand Paul 11%
Marco Rubio 9%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 5%
Not Sure/Refused 17%
The full SOUTH CAROLINA results: 400 likely GOP voters, live telephone interviews, Dec. 4-7:
Mike Huckabee 24%
Chris Christie 15%
Ted Cruz 12%
Marco Rubio 12%
Rand Paul 11%
Rick Santorum 6%
Rick Perry 5%
Not Sure/Refused 15%
Huckabee’s support grows when the Wickers polls narrow in on base voters — those described as having a “high interest” in the election and consider themselves as “very conservative and pro-life.” But his biggest competition among that important subgroup appears to be from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
For instance, in Iowa, Cruz ties Huckabee at 24 percent a piece among base voters. In South Carolina, Huckabee jumps to 30 percent among the base; Cruz increases his share to 16 percent. Not surprisingly, Christie plummets into single digits among the base, registering just three percent in Iowa and six percent in South Carolina.
The Wickers polling also demonstrates Huckabee boasting the best favorability rating among Republicans in both states. Somewhat surprisingly, though Christie is the runner-up in both states, he holds the worst favorability among the contenders.
IOWA favorability:
Mike Huckabee 75%
Rand Paul 65%
Rick Santorum 59%
Marco Rubio 58%
Ted Cruz 55%
Chris Christie 49%
SOUTH CAROLINA favorability:
Mike Huckabee 72%
Rand Paul 60%
Marco Rubio 58%
Ted Cruz 55%
Rick Santorum 53%
Chris Christie 46%
GOP voters in both states overwhelmingly prefer a candidate who has served as a governor over a member of Congress, Wickers also found.
While skeptics will surely pour cold water on polling run by a Huckabee confidante, the mere release of the results is an indication that Huckabee — and those close to him — are weighing the race seriously. In addition, Wickers’ findings closely mirrors a recent Gravis Marketing survey of South Carolina, also showing Huckabee atop the pack.
Huckabee just announced he’s giving up his radio show and will be touring a series of Pastors & Pews events around the country in early 2014 — appearances that will serve as a sort of testing ground.
A decision on a potential run is probably still a year away, but the Huckabee factor is a new one that adds another wrinkle to the ever-evolving GOP primary field.
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
