Given their impromptu squabble over the direction of the party, it’s fitting that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul should sit next to each other at the top of the pack in the Granite State, according to a new University of New Hampshire survey.
In fact, there’s a plausible case to be made that the battle for the 2016 GOP nomination could all come down to whether Christie can halt a conservative’s march (presumably Paul’s) in New Hampshire.
Let’s assume that if Christie does enter the contest, he won’t vigorously compete in Iowa, allowing Paul to fight Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and a few governors for the biggest sliver of conservatives in the Hawkeye State. Let’s also remember that the last two victors of the GOP caucuses — Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum — have gone on to be runners-up.
If Paul can score a win in Iowa, he’d obviously be hoping to change that history by converting a two-fer in New Hampshire, on the strength of his libertarian base. At this point and time, the biggest threat to Paul is Christie — who dubbed his libertarian leanings “dangerous.”
If Christie can’t stop Paul here, Rand is likely the nominee. If Paul is steamrolled by Christie, it allows another conservative to get in the game in South Carolina and likely prolongs the nomination battle.
Here in the dead of August more than two years away from the nominating contests, it looks like a Christie vs. Paul fight:
Chris Christie 21%
Rand Paul 16%
Jeb Bush 10%
Paul Ryan 8%
Marco Rubio 6%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Santorum 4%
Rick Perry 4%
Scott Walker 2%
Don’t Know Yet 20%
Despite Christie’s lead, Paul boasts a higher net favorability in the state (+37%), arguably a more important advantage to have at this early vantage point.
Christie’s favorability has sunk — but not as much as the floundering Marco Rubio.
“Rubio’s dropped 18 percentage points since April and Christie has dropped 14 percentage points since February,” said UNH survey director Andrew Smith.
The greatest increases in net favorability: Paul and Bobby Jindal.
Paul also tops the heap on net electability.
Christie, on the other hand, is tied with Bush for NO votes — the number of likely GOP primary voters who wouldn’t vote for a candidate under any circumstance.
The sample, is notably small. Only 200 likely GOP voters were sampled between July 18-29, giving the poll a margin of error of 6.8 percent.
Currently, The CHASE rankings have Rand slotted first and Christie in fourth.
Follow Dave’s blog at TheRun2016.com
