If Rick Perry is to resurrect his longshot presidential hopes in 2016, Iowa will be an essential part of the playbook.
And he’s not exactly being shy about the Hawkeye State’s importance to him.
The Texas governor returned to the state Thursday, where over the span of two days, he’ll gab with local reporters, conduct a conference call for the Republican Governors Association, meet with Gov. Terry Branstad, Iowa business leaders as well as members of the National Rifle Association and address over 400 activists at the Polk County Republican dinner.
Thursday night, he delivered his pre-packaged speech of touting red state economic policies over those in blue states and pointing to Texas as a shimmering model for the nation.
But the larger message relevant to his future aspirations were also on full display: Perry will be back in Iowa often, and any candidacy will be launched early.
“If you’re going to run you need to get in a couple years early,” he told the Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs in video interview posted on the web.
Perry finished a disappointing fifth in the 2012 caucuses.
A 2016 run could easily pit him against homestate Sen. Ted Cruz, who has already made three visits to Iowa this year.
Perry has made no secret that he disagrees with Cruz’s legislative tactics that led to a government shutdown, telling The Dallas Morning News, “Everybody gets to go out and do their thing. That’s his thing. My thing is governing.”
(Jacobs interview is worth your click, especially the lighter latter half in which Perry reveals he drives a 2000 5-series BMW, enjoys Shiner Bock beer and has a phobia of snakes. ”I hate snakes,” he said. ”It’s the reason to run with a pistol.”)
During a conference call on the Florida governor’s race Thursday, Perry was careful not to pump up New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s re-election victory, offering only glancing praise and redirecting the focus to 2014.
“Congrats to him for maintaining Jersey in the red governor column,” Perry replied. ”But our focus is on 2014.”
Perry will appear Sunday on ABC’s This Week program, following Christie.
It’s possible they’ll be soon crossing paths in Iowa.
Perry will be back next month, but is already seeking to capture some moments for the future.
An Iowa-based source tells The RUN Perry sought to film video during his Friday visit to Brownells — the world’s largest gun manufacturer. It was material deemed for a “nonspecific future use.”
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The battle lines are beginning to harden in the maturing GOP presidential field now that Chris Christie is basking in his moment of supreme electability.
Rand Paul has been the most overtly confrontational, openly calling him a moderate.
Marco Rubio offered his congratulations but cautioned that the 2013 races shouldn’t be overanalyzed for lessons in future races. ”Every race is different,” he said.
And then there’s Ted Cruz, who naturally saluted Christie’s brash nature, but then immediately pivoted back to hammering Obamacare.
Then, for once, he bit his tongue:
Asked whether Christie is a true conservative, Cruz walked away. Aides said he didn’t have time for more questions.
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How’s this for a congratulations?
The day after Gov. Chris Christie routed his Democratic opponent for a second term, Sen. Rand Paul rapped him for appearing in television ads funded by federal dollars allocated for Hurricane Sandy recovery.
New Jersey’s Record reports:
At a Senate hearing on the status of Sandy recovery, Paul never mentioned Christie by name, but left little doubt about who he meant when he asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan if it was proper to use disaster relief funds for television commercials.
As Donovan started to explain the purposes of the Community Development Block Grant program and how ads could be appropriate if they spur economic activity that reduces the need for future grants, Paul interrupted.
“It gives a little bit of a black eye to something that maybe a lot of it is going to a good purpose,” Paul said.
“Some of these ads, people who are running for office put their mug all over the ads while they’re in the middle of a political campaign. In New Jersey, $25 million was spent on ads that included somebody running for political office… There might be a conflict of interest here. … That’s why, when people are trying to use taxpayers’ money wisely, they’re offended to see money spent on political ads. You know, that’s offensive.”
For the record, Donovan told Paul the ads are “clearly within the legal boundaries of what Congress has determined the program can be used for.”
Paul’s comments are all the more striking given the timing. Christie’s enjoying a splash of favorable press coverage in the wake of his gigantic victory and grandiose speech he delivered holding up New Jersey as a model for political success.
Paul and Christie currently occupy the top two positions in The CHASE – The RUN’s rolling rankings of the most likely Republican presidential nominee in 2016.
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The speech he delivered matched the grandiosity of the stage he stood on.
Following his seismic 22-point victory over Democrat Barbara Buono, it’s obvious now that Christie sought to use the address to trumpet his rationale for a presidential candidacy.
Here are 5 key points he delivered along with the larger message he was attempting to send to the country.
1. Christie’s soundbyte: “I know that if we can do this in Trenton, New Jersey, maybe the folks in Washington, D.C. should tune in their TVs right now, see how it’s done.”
Christie’s message: For all the talk of my harsh, brash, pugnacious nature, I’ve proven I’m still more successful at governing than those putzes in Washington. The government shutdown? Woulda never happened on my watch. I have to deal with a legislature of the opposite party too — but we’re still capable of acting like adults and working together.
2. Christie’s soundbyte: ”We show up. We show up everywhere. We don’t just show up in the places that vote for us a lot. We show up in the places that vote for us a little. We don’t just show up in the places we’re comfortable. We show up in the places where we’re uncomfortable. Because when you lead, you need to be there.”
Christie’s message: If (when) I run for president, I’ll strive to campaign everywhere — even in places that may be wary of an in-your-face northeastern governor, even in enclaves normally hostile to Republican candidates. My mantra will be to win and winning means growing the party. That means venturing into the big cities as well as the smaller far-flung towns. And oh, punditry aside, I may just go to Iowa in the run-up to the caucuses, despite my long odds of success there. Sure, I probably won’t win them (and frankly, I don’t need to), but I will respect their process and make my case, because that’s what I do. I show up. Everywhere.
3. Christie’s soundbyte: ”You can agree with me or disagree with me, but I will never stop leading the state I love.”
Christie’s message: Admit it Democrats, you probably don’t like a lot of my policies, but you can’t deny I’m not a natural leader with tremendous persuasive ability. You gotta at least respect my no-nonsense candor, for the most part.
4. Christie’s soundbyte: ”Now that doesn’t mean that we don’t have principles, we have many of them. And we have stood and fought every day to cut taxes, to reduce the size of government spending, to reform pension benefits, to reform a broken education system and to make sure that we create an opportunity again for New Jerseyans.”
Christie’s message: And to my conservative critics, look at the record, I’m a pretty conservative guy. And I stress the stuff that matters — the stuff that will allow us to win — economic, bread-and-butter, kitchen table issues I’m with you on the social issues too, but I’m not in your face about it. This is part of the formula that allows me to win. I’m one of you, just packaged a bit differently and with a bit more spunk. So don’t even think about trying to portray me as a faux conservative. It won’t work.
5. Christie’s soundbyte: ”I know that tonight a dispirited America angry with their dysfunctional government in Washington, looks to New Jersey to say, ‘Is what I think happening, really happening? Are people really coming together? Are we really working African-Americans and Hispanics, suburbanites and city dwellers, farmers and teachers, are we really all working together?’
Christie’s message: Remember that rebranding effort the Republican National Committee undertook a year ago? How’s that working out for you? Well, I’m a governor in a blue state who has built a broad coalition. I can win women — the demographic that befuddled the other Republican gubernatorial candidate who lost this year. I can put Hispanics in play and African-Americans will at least give me the time of day. And I’ve built a team of ambassadors here from all these different demographic groups who can vouch for me and my proclivity to be inclusive. It’s powerful and it’s just the beginning.
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Mitt Romney was never a natural fit for Iowa.
But as the Republican Party wrestles with how to alter its nominating system in order to produce a less battered nominee in 2016, the former Massachusetts governor offers some advice in an interview with the Boston Globe: Move away from the complicated caucus.
Romney, who was pilloried during the GOP primaries by many Tea Party supporters, said the presidential nominating contest should be altered to diminish the influence of caucuses and encourage states to select candidates through broader primary elections.
“I’m concerned that there’s an effort on the part of some to move toward caucuses or conventions to select nominees, and I think that’s a mistake,” Romney said.
“I think we should reward those states that award delegates to the convention based upon primaries. Primaries are the place where you see whose message is connecting with the largest number of people,” he said.
A change this dramatic would implicitly alter Iowa’s role, which is persistently debated after each presidential campaign. But Romney said that was not his intention.
Romney’s plan would probably limit the strength of the Tea Party, whose activists have proved effective in caucuses, where they can rally their most ardent supporters. Romney said he was less concerned about diminishing the influence of Iowa, which holds strong to its tradition of having a caucus, than with other states moving in that direction.
“I’m concerned that that kind of approach could end up with a minority deciding who the nominee ought to be. And that I think would be a mistake,” he said. “I think we should have the majority of the party’s voters decide who they want as their nominee.”
There’s one candidate who comes immediately to mind that could feasibly embrace a caucus-free approach come 2016.
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The final national figure to campaign for Chris Christie’s re-election in New Jersey will be New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez.
Martinez is not only her state’s first female governor, but also the first Hispanic female governor in the entire country.
The Star-Ledger notes that Martinez represents Christie’s concerted effort to reach out to Hispanics. Campaign spokesman Kevin Roberts even delivers a quote that the Martinez visit “makes another statement about what we are doing and the non-traditional support we are gaining.”
The images of Christie and Martinez together Monday will only conjure up thoughts of a possible 2016 ticket.
If Christie is the nominee, it’s highly unlikely he’d select one of his insurgent rivals like Sens. Rand Paul or Ted Cruz as his running mate. Given his thematic of being able to win big in a blue state, Martinez falls right into the sweet spot. Furthermore, if he’s locked in a battle with Hillary Clinton, the pressure to seriously consider a female running mate will be palpable. Given her own record and political profile, Martinez will likely end up on Christie’s short list.
Martinez is only the second national politician to join Christie in Jersey; the other was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. It’s fascinating to contrast the two blue-state, more moderate Christie surrogates of Martinez and Giuliani with the rest of the 2016 pack who saddled up for Ken Cuccinelli’s likely losing effort in Virginia.
Cuccinelli brought in Sens. Paul and Marco Rubio along with Govs. Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker. Granted, Cuccinelli was more in the need of cavalry, given his underdog political position.
But Christie’s campaign partners are instructive with regards to saying something more about who he is comfortable associating himself with — moderates who represent the diverse, big tent Republican Party rationale.
And the 2016 atmospherics may just make Martinez an option that’s too good to resist.
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Just days away from an expected smashing re-election victory in New Jersey, a new book portrays Gov. Chris Christie as an opposition researcher’s dream.
In “Double Down: Game Change 2012″, Mitt Romney’s vice presidential vetting team is portrayed as hostile to Christie due to a litany of troubling issues in his past that haven’t previously received sustained attention.
An excerpt of the book chronicling the 2012 campaign quotes Romney adviser Ted Newton saying, “When you look below the surface, it’ not pretty.”
This graph summarizes the red flags that disturbed Romney’s team and ultimately dissuaded them from favoring Christie for vice president:
The vetters were stunned by the garish controversies lurking in the shadows of his record. There was a 2010 Department of Justice inspector general’s investigation of Christie’s spending patterns in his job prior to the governorship, which criticized him for being “the U.S. attorney who most often exceeded the government [travel expense] rate without adequate justification” and for offering “insufficient, inaccurate, or no justification” for stays at swank hotels like the Four Seasons. There was the fact that Christie worked as a lobbyist on behalf of the Securities Industry Association at a time when Bernie Madoff was a senior SIA official—and sought an exemption from New Jersey’s Consumer Fraud Act. There was Christie’s decision to steer hefty government contracts to donors and political allies like former Attorney General John Ashcroft, which sparked a congressional hearing. There was a defamation lawsuit brought against Christie arising out of his successful 1994 run to oust an incumbent in a local Garden State race. Then there was Todd Christie, the Governor’s brother, who in 2008 agreed to a settlement of civil charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission in which he acknowledged making “hundreds of trades in which customers had been systematically overcharged.” (Todd also oversaw a family foundation whose activities and purpose raised eyebrows among the vetters.) And all that was on top of a litany of glaring matters that sparked concern on Myers’ team: Christie’s other lobbying clients, his investments overseas, the YouTube clips that helped make him a star but might call into doubt his presidential temperament, and the status of his health.
Newton told his colleagues, If Christie had been in the nomination fight against us, we would have destroyed him—he wouldn’t be able to run for governor again, according to “Double Down.”
At campaign stops Friday, Christie waved off the claims as an attempt to sell books.
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Sen. Ted Cruz privately told a group of donors in New York this past summer that Sen. Rand Paul can’t be elected president.
That’s the lead nugget in a New York Times piece examining the relationship of the two tea party stars. It’ also the first published piece of evidence showing a breach between the two colleagues who are in agreement on the substance of most issues but are heading towards a potential collision course in 2016.
[W]hen Mr. Cruz went to New York City to meet with donors this summer, he privately offered a different view of Mr. Paul: The Kentucky senator can never be elected president, he told them, because he can never fully detach himself from the strident libertarianism of his father, former Representative Ron Paul of Texas.
Word of Mr. Cruz’s remarks reached Mr. Paul’s inner circle, touching off anger and resentment.
An aide to Paul said that while Rand and Cruz genuinely like each other, their friendship wouldn’t impact the senator’s decision to run.
“Kelley Paul is the one that matters,” said the aide.
The same, is likely to be assumed of Cruz, who has been more coy about his own obvious presidential ambitions.
But a Cruz-Paul slugfest could be just the formula for a more moderate GOP figure — like Chris Christie or Marco Rubio — to slide up the middle and capture the nomination. It’s a scenario not dissimilar to the fissure that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich experienced in the 2012 primary fight against Mitt Romney.
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Here’s a surprise: A Jersey Yankee leads the early Republican presidential field in South Carolina.
Chris Christie comes out on top in a new Harper Polling survey of the Palmetto State, capturing 19 percent.
Still more — 22 percent — are undecided, but Christie’s number in a southern and traditionally conservative state underlines his outsized national presence.
The numbers are from Harper, a GOP-affiliated outfit which surveyed 676 likely Republican voters Oct. 27-28. This appears to be the first public poll this year of the South Carolina presidential primary:
Chris Christie 19%
Ted Cruz 17%
Rand Paul 13%
Marco Rubio 12%
Paul Ryan 12%
Bobby Jindal 6%
With a 3.7 percent margin of error, Cruz is in a virtual tie, with Sen. Rand Paul right on their heels.
But given Cruz’s stardom coming out of the government shutdown, his position isn’t as surprising.
Let’s go inside the Harper crosstabs for more nuggets:
- In South Carolina’s top city — CHARLESTON (!) — Christie and Cruz are TIED at 22.2 percent a PIECE.
- The biggest South Carolina gender gap belongs to Rand Paul — he runs four points better among women than men.
- Paul runs best among the youngest (18-35); Cruz performs best among seniors (66+)
- The conservative vs. moderate divide between Christie and Cruz is well . . . just silly. Christie gets 45 percent of moderates and 11 percent of conservatives. Cruz draws 25 percent of conservatives and 4 percent of moderates. (Moderates for CRUZ!)
- Jeb Bush was not included in the poll. If he was, it’s plausible he cuts into Christie’s number. But Harper Polling president Brock McCleary says he doesn’t buy Jeb is running. ”I leave him out because I believe he distorts reality too much.”
The smarts on this very early poll: It’s a snapshot in time of the few that are paying attention, but don’t take it too seriously.
South Carolina-based political consultant Fred Wszolek explains: ”Right now a robo poll about the 2016 presidential race is probably a pretty good read about what hyper-attentive, party elites might be thinking, because everybody else in America has better things to do than answer questions about something that far in the future. You only participate because you’re super engaged. As you get closer to election day, way more people are in that state of being super engaged.”
“I wouldn’t think that a poll of South Carolina that shows a New Jersey governor with a small lead is worthless, but it probably doesn’t model very well against the people who will actually show up on E-Day,” Wszolek continued.
After all, another northeastern Republican had a lead in South Carolina once too.
His name was Rudy Giuliani. And the year was 2007.
Come primary day 2008, Giuliani netted 2 percent.
McCleary thinks Christie is benefiting from favorable national press at the moment, but he also believes the governor can genuinely be competitive in South Carolina.
“He embodies the fight in the heart of conservatives better than anyone. I’m betting he’s good enough at selling the fight that he can make enough of them see past cultural differences,” McCleary said.
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Gov. Chris Christie is already billing his probable victory in New Jersey next Tuesday as “a historic election in the history of our state” that will attract the eyes of the nation.
In a conference call with hundreds of supporters, volunteers and legislative candidates Monday evening, Christie elevated the impact of his re-election bid, billing it as a once-in-a-generation effort that will provide a template for anguished Republicans on how to win again.
“That’s what we’re in it for. We’re in it to win,” he said.
The potential 2016 presidential candidate made no qualms about sending a message far beyond the borders of the Garden State with what he hopes is a double-digit pummeling of Democrat Barbara Buono.
“The entire country is watching. We’re going to have an opportunity as a Republican Party to set an example for our party all over the country, about the way you bring people together, the way you put together coalitions,” Christie said during a 15-minute talk on the campaign call.
“Let’s wake up with a hangover on Nov. 6,” he said.
Christie rattled off a trove of granular statistics to display the massive campaign operation that is still underway in the final eight days.
By the numbers, via Christie, who dubbed it as “one of the most incredible statewide grassroots efforts that any Republican has ever run in the state’s history”:
- 30 Republican National Committee staffers in the state
- 3.5 million voter contacts this cycle, 3 million calls; 500,000 door knocks. That’s compared to 2 million voter contacts four years ago.
- The campaign pledged to make an additional 450,000 calls and 150,000 door knocks in the closing week.
- Have identified 120,000 new supporters in 2013, including 100,000 new supporters for legislative candidates
- By Nov. 5, eight (8) separate mail pieces will have hit doors encouraging people to vote
- A bus tour the final week will include 92 stops in 21 counties
On the robocalls, Christie quipped, ”Whether people find them annoying or not, they’re effective and we’re going to keep making them.”
Christie also guaranteed supporters “a really great party” in Asbury Park for election night.
The campaign decided to eschew the traditional “stuffy hotel ballroom” for the Jersey Shore convention hall with a boardwalk backdrop to celebrate the progress made since Hurricane Sandy ravaged the state a year ago.
“It’s going to be different like our campaign’s been different,” Christie pledged of the election night festivities.
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The Washington Post proposed Monday that one of the central questions surrounding a potential Ted Cruz presidential candidacy is whether the Texan’s bid would be more like Michele Bachmann’s or Mike Huckabee’s.
Bachmann was Cruz before Cruz — the tea party-backed outsider who fought the fights more “pragmatic” politicians in Washington, D.C., weren’t willing to take on. And, like Cruz, that approach made Bachmann a rock star in the state of Iowa.
Huckabee’s “aw shucks” personality, sense of humor and charisma ensured that he was more than just a one-hit Ames wonder. He emerged as the “heart” candidate for many Iowa Republicans . . .
I’d posit that, at this early stage, Cruz’s profile is more congruent with another insurgent presidential contender . . . Newt Gingrich.
Yes, Bachmann was a tea party rockstar who loved tweaking the establishment, but to compare her with Cruz would be a slight to the freshman senator. While Cruz certainly knows how to serve up red-meat rhetoric, his propensity to make a Bachmann-sized gaffe on the stump is significantly less. Fair or not, Bachmann was also perceived among the press and her colleagues as flighty and unserious. Cruz may not be well-liked, but even his opponents respect his intellect and political acumen.
Huckabee, on the other hand, was an extremely likeable figure who captivated voters (and the press) with sheer personality. He was fun and attempted to be hip — he was in a band and Chuck Norris campaigned for him in Iowa! — two attributes Cruz cannot claim. Huckabee was the guy you wanted to grab a beer with, or at least a latte. Cruz is someone who can light up a room with his bombastic rhetoric and self-assured demeanor, but he doesn’t exactly exude back-slapping warmth.
At this very early vantage point, Cruz offers more heft than Bachmann yet less charisma than Huckabee.
That is, in part, what led me to the Gingrich comparison.
Cruz and Gingrich are both intellects with Washington-roots yet lament the Beltway establishment; they are both smart and savvy debaters and both men’s leadership styles have rubbed members of their own party the wrong way, creating a healthy amount of enemies.
A passage in Dan Balz’s book, Collision 2012, also prompted me to contemplate the parallel to Gingrich.
You could imagine Cruz gaining early steam in a 2016 GOP primary bid — winning Iowa, perhaps — only to be quashed by nervous establishment forces later. That is essentially what happened to Gingrich after his victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina.
Establishment forces — who previously remained silent yet felt aggrieved toward Gingrich — came out of the woodwork to target Newt.
The history of Gingrich’s ultimate Achilles’ Heel, captured by Balz ahead of the Florida 2012 primary, could easily haunt Cruz:
Bob Dole said Gingrich would threaten the election of Republican candidates up and down the ballot. ”Hardly anyone who served with Newt in Congress has endorsed him,” Dole said in a statement issued through the Romney campaign, “and that speaks for itself. He was a one-man band who rarely took advice. It was his way or the highway.”
The establishment message that Gingrich represented a threat to the party was not new, but the intensity with which it was now being delivered certainly was. That he might become the nominee had touched off near panic in the ranks ahead of Tuesday’s vote. Party establishments, to the degree they exist, have only limited power to direct the course of events. But to the extent they have power, they were exercising it with a vengeance, ganging upon the Speaker with evident enthusiasm. Former House majority leader Tom DeLay, who had served as House whip under Gingrich, called him erratic. National Review attacked him, as did the American Spectator. Ann Coulter issued a warning: ”Reelect Obama. Vote Newt.” In a matter of weeks, what had been talk of whether a stop-Romney movement would materialize on the right became the reality of a stop-Gingrich movement coming from the party establishment.
A threat to candidates up and down the ballot? Someone who went his own way, defiant and shunning advice? A candidate with bad relations in Congress? And someone who freaks out the establishment sliver of the party?
Like Gingrich, these are all descriptions that one could see being applied to Ted Cruz.
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Predictably, Gov. Chris Christie’s decision to withdraw the appeal of a New Jersey court order to allow gay marriage has left conservatives dismayed.
The Family Research Council issued a statement of “disappointment,” implying that Christie lacked the backbone to pursue the legal fight to defend traditional marriage.
“We are glad that Gov. Christie vetoed the legislature’s attempt to redefine marriage, and that he was initially willing to defend the state’s marriage law in court. However, conservatives are looking for leaders who will sustain their commitment to unchanging principles,’ read a statement from FRC senior fellow for policy Peter Sprigg.
“Combined with his signing of a radical bill to outlaw even voluntary sexual orientation change efforts with minors, today’s action has given conservatives serious pause about Gov. Christie’s reliability,’ Sprigg continued.
Bob Vander Plaats, the conservative gatekeeper in Iowa, went further in comments to National Review, saying Christie’s position would better suit a Democratic presidential candidate.
“This would suit him a lot better if he were running as a Democrat,” he says, adding that while social conservatives “had some cautionary flags raised already,” the move is uniquely problematic for the governor.
“This just adds more concern to those cautionary flags,” he says, “because not only is he backing away from a very principled stance of one-man-one-woman marriage, he’s also backing away from the Constitution and the separation of powers.”
“It’s a huge issue,” Vander Plaats concludes.
A new Rutgers-Eagleton poll finds support for gay marriage in New Jersey at 61 percent. For the first time in the poll, a plurality of New Jersey Republicans support gay marriage.
But, as Christie well knows, the Garden State is a long way from Iowa.
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Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has hired a former Mitt Romney staffer with experience in Iowa and New Hampshire to lead a new group designed to drive proactive policy solutions for the Republican Party.
Via Politico:
His first hire, executive director Jill Neunaber, has experience in the early states. She managed Romney’s Iowa campaign last fall and was deputy manager of his New Hampshire operation during the primary season. She managed Gabriel Gomez’s unsuccessful Senate campaign in Massachusetts this spring.
Jindal’s been the most emphatic of the potential 2016ers to wave off speculation about running, saying anyone thinking about it this early “should have their head examined.”
Gov. Chris Christie had another crisp, forceful debate Tuesday night toward his effort to secure a second term in New Jersey.
But there was one line he delivered that could come back to haunt him in 2016.
It was the governor’s response to whether he believes climate change had anything to do with the force and destruction displayed by Hurricane Sandy. And it’s these words that are likely to be flashed in a television ad or thrown at him during a debate during the GOP presidential primary two and a half years from now.
“I think climate change is real and I think human activity plays a role.”
As I live-tweeted the New Jersey debate, the only other tweet that attracted as much attention as that quote was Christie’s explanation on what he would do if his child was gay:
“I’d grab them, hug them and tell them that I love them . . . But dad believes marriage is between one man and one woman.”
That answer would actually play nicely into the Republican Party’s less hostile messaging on the marriage question, which is essentially: Let’s respectfully disagree.
But the climate change explanation is just the type that will exercise the right.
Twitter is a highly imperfect, but not irrelevant way to measure the pulse of the body politic.
But the reaction was swift . . .
Ammo for #Cruz'16 or #Paul'16RT @davecatanese: Christie: "I think climate change is real and I think human activity plays a role." #NJGOV
— Jules (@JulesPSpencer) October 16, 2013
@davecatanese @JimPethokoukis One reason why Christie will not win a national GOP nomination.
— Peter Korman (@pjkorman) October 16, 2013
Rick perry is stoked "@davecatanese: Christie: "I think climate change is real and I think human activity plays a role." #NJGOV #2016clip?"
— willie (@midwestaholic) October 16, 2013
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Marco Rubio’s had a rough six months.
He’s been whipsawed by the right for his efforts on immigration reform. His standing in the race for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination has dwindled to single digits in a swath of polling. Most distressing, I’m sure, is that he’s even been dethroned as leader of The RUN’s CHASE rankings (!).
But Rubio is still tops when it comes to one important political category: The Money, honey.
The Florida senator raised the most money among the Capitol Hill 2016 crew during the third quarter — covering between July and the end of September. It should also be noted that Rubio is burning through a good amount of cash, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on direct mail communication and shipping.
But it appears he can afford to be a profligate spender, given the fast clip in which he’s been able to lock down dough.
Here are the stats:
- Rubio: $1.8 million raised, $3.2 million left on hand
- Paul Ryan: $1.17 million raised, $2.6 million left on hand
- Rand Paul: $1 million raised, $1.25 million left on hand
- Ted Cruz: $800,000 raised, $378,697 left on hand
- Pete King: $234,424 raised, $2.67 million left on hand
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Hillary Clinton repeatedly mentioned Vice President Joe Biden’s opposition to the raid that killed Osama bin Laden during a speech in Atlanta, marking the first time she’s directly engaged her potential Democratic rival in a public setting since leaving the State Department, according to an account in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Her remarks at the National Association of Convenience Stores were relayed to the newspaper by a Republican state lawmaker, who is now convinced Clinton is running for president in 2016.
No ears reported any mention of whatever 2016 ambitions Clinton might have. But state Rep. Tom Taylor, R-Dunwoody, said the former first lady dropped a huge hint. “I know she’s running for president now, because toward the end, she was asked about the Osama bin Laden raid. She took 25 minutes to answer,” Taylor said. “Without turning the knife too deeply, she put it to [Vice President Joe] Biden.”
Time and time again, Taylor said, Clinton mentioned the vice president’s opposition to the raid, while characterizing herself and Leon Panetta, then director of the Central Intelligence Agency, as the action’s most fierce advocates.
For Clinton to place herself firmly in the corner of the raid advocates makes sense, given she was asked the question. What’s surprising and a bit perplexing is why she felt the need to tweak Biden repeatedly, if Taylor’s interpretation is accurate.
National and early state polling has consistently shown she flies 50-points ahead of the vice president and most Democrats believe Biden will ultimately take a pass at the race if Hillary is a go.
Perhaps this is a preview of a more aggressive Clinton, one who is unwilling to take anything for granted after her searing 2008 experience. Or maybe it was an opening shot across the bow to Biden and his team, who back in August, appeared to pitch the Wall Street Journal on a piece positing he could defeat Clinton.
The piece seemed to be more about reaching for a 2016-scoop than laying out a compelling rationale.
But Hillary’s remarks in Atlanta could be interpreted as the retort: Good luck with that Joe. Batter up.
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New York Rep. Pete King, the newest addition to The CHASE, suggests to Bloomberg Television that the impetus behind his possible 2016 presidential run is to blunt Ted Cruz.
He also makes clear that when he says no other Republican in the country would take on Cruz, he’s not targeting border state Gov. Chris Christie.
Here’s the excerpt of his appearance with Al Hunt:
“. . . For instance, on this whole thing with the Ted Cruz and the shutdown, I don’t know if any other Republican in the country that out and out came out and condemned Ted Cruz and said this is wrong. Nobody in Congress did. And other leaders around the country seemed like they wanted to wait until it was over and then come in or say we have to”
“I’m not going to target Chris Christie. But the fact is that nobody else spoke. And I think people want leadership. I was there. I took a chance when Ted Cruz was the darling of the Republicans. It was only two weeks ago, but he was the darling of Republicans. I was the only guy taking him on nationwide. So I think people want leadership. They want a pragmatic conservative, a guy who can work, like Ronald Reagan, building trade unions, cops, firefighters, tough on the – on national security, on homeland security, and is going to fight for the great Jack Kemp-type economic plan.”
King sounds like he’s declaring victory in his verbal fisticuffs with Cruz now that Republicans have been gravitating towards a deal with Democrats to end the government shutdown without repealing the health care law.
Given King’s personal animosity towards Cruz, it wouldn’t be so surprising if the Texan’s own 2016 decision determines King’s as well.
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Former President Jimmy Carter heaped effusive praise on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over the weekend, dubbing him “very effective” and noting that he’s been complimentary of Democrats.
“I was filled with admiration for what [Christie] did, not only helping within New Jersey but also his influence in making sure that the Congress didn’t continue to deprive the people whose homes were destroyed of repair assistance.”
“I think he’s been a very effective governor in taking care of New Jersey’s great deficit, whether he inherited it, and also taking care of the people who were injured during the hurricane.”
The Holmdel-Hazlet Patch captured video of the remarks by Carter at a Habitat for Humanity event.
“And I’ve noticed he’s said some good things about Democrats and I have no hesitation mentioning some good things about him,” Carter continued.
While that statement is indicative of why Christie is cruising towards reelection in New Jersey this year, it’s also just the type of praise from a top Democratic leader that some conservatives will point to as evidence that Christie isn’t one of them.
Ted Cruz’s ObamaCare antics may have earned the ire of establishment Republicans, but his steely, if not truculent obstinance has simultaneously propelled him to near-messianic status among the base of his party.
That’s why the Texan senator has ascended to the #3 position on The CHASE — our rolling monthly rankings of the most likely 2016 presidential nominee of each party.
Pollsters who weren’t even including Cruz in their 2016 field last spring now show him snaggingdouble-digit numbers. One poll, in fact, placed him vaulting to the top of the 2016 Republican nomination pack. Two critical state parties — in South Carolina and Florida — have formally moved to applaud Cruz’s effort to halt implementation of ObamaCare, even as it led to the government closing its doors. And over the weekend, he won the Values Voters straw poll in a walk, by a full 29 percentage points.
Whether Cruz’s moment in the sun is indeed just a moment is unknown, but it’s difficult to imagine him shrinking from the stage, even once the shutdown and debt ceiling debates subside.
Rand Paul and Chris Christie continue to top The CHASE due to their consistency at the top of a wide compilation of national polls and the GOP’s instinct to eventually settle on a more moderate nominee, if not flirting with an ideologue for a period of time. Some politicos are even arguing that Cruz’s brash performance over the last month have made Paul look more moderate and mainstream.
Would Paul and Cruz run against each other? They’re said to be friendly, but presidential politics has a way of testing even the most genuine alliances. A field with both Paul and Cruz would be the best scenario for Christie, the New Jersey governor on his way to a re-election route in the Garden State.
Cruz’s move to the #3 spot bumps Marco Rubio — the one-time leader of The CHASE — down to #4, his lowest standing on our ranking.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a candidate with little national name recognition but abundant potential has slid back into Tier 2. The emergence of a 2014 gubernatorial challenger — Democrat Mary Burke — should refocus Walker’s efforts back at home, at least partially.
The only other change in the Tier 2 section of The CHASE — is the replacement of Jon Huntsman with New York Rep. Peter King.
While King has stated he a presidential candidate — for now — The RUN reported that Huntsman has been signaling all around the country he is unlikely to make another run at the White House.
Some readers have objected to the labeling of certain candidates as even being in the second tier of prospects, but for now, The CHASE has decided to only construct two tiers of candidates — the elite, front-runners and the rest of the pack.
On the Democratic side of The CHASE — there are no changes, as is the pattern. The ordering of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren remain set in stone.
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Grover Norquist, speaking in Urbandale, Iowa Wednesday, leaves Marco Rubio off his list of 2016 contenders.
And perhaps even worse in Norquist’s eyes, he tosses him in the same basket as Ted Cruz.
In 2016, he said, there could be six or seven candidates – nearly all governors – who could fund the campaign from start to finish and “pass the laugh test” on their candidacy.
Norquist named Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Later, he also mentioned Sam Brownback and Mike Pence.
I asked him about Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who has already been to Iowa several times and will return later this month. He didn’t dismiss Cruz, but said he and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio “just showed up.” It’s tough to run for president from the Senate, he said. Governors have the advantage of being able to show accomplishments as an executive instead of one of 100 senators.
The Americans for Tax Reform’s president’s comments on Cruz aren’t surprising — he’s already said the tenacious Texan should apologize to his party for dragging it into the shutdown conundrum they find themselves in. But his reflection on Rubio can be another measure of how the Floridian’s star has dimmed since the beginning of the year.
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The Democratic National Committee is now venturing into early presidential primary states to tar potential GOP White House hopefuls with blame for the ongoing government shutdown.
On the heels of its campaign targeting a slew of top Republican officials in their home states, the DNC began a new effort Wednesday zoning in on the first four 2016 primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, The RUN has learned.
A new robocall will pour into Iowa while Twitter, Facebook and Google ads will land in all four states.
Listen to the Iowa robocall — highlighting Sens. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul —HERE.
Hi, I’m calling on behalf of the DNC with a GOP Shutdown Alert.
Republicans in Congress like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul shut down the government over a week ago trying to gut Obamacare.
Because of their shutdown new USDA farm loans in Iowa have been halted and Iowa farmers aren’t receiving payments for programs they’re enrolled in.
Their shutdown is costing the economy up to $10 billion a week and they’re willing to force a default on our obligations.
Take action – call the Iowa GOP at (515) 282.8105 and demand that the GOP stop holding the economy hostage.
Paid for by the Democratic National Committee. (202) 863-8000. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
The DNC did not say exactly how many calls would be made into Iowa, only putting the total number of calls this week in the “hundreds of thousands.” Iowa becomes the sixth state to be targeted with DNC robocalls.
“We’ll continue to hold Republicans accountable until they end this manufactured crisis by holding a vote to fully fund the entire government and allow the nation to pay its bills. We’ll continue with additional targets in the coming days,” said DNC spokesman Michael Czin.
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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie squared off with Democrat Barbara Buono in the first of two debates Tuesday night before his likely re-election next month.
Here are 3 takeaways from the governor’s performance that should be remembered as he positions himself for a White House campaign.
1. He’s not as moderate on some issues as a lot of people think
This point has been made before, but the hour-long face-off put his ideological bent under an acute focus. Despite conservative fears that Christie is some mushy moderate northeast liberal, most of the stands he took on issues during the debate could easily be characterized as staunchly conservative.
Against gay marriage: ”I believe that the institution of marriage for 2,000 years is between a man and a woman.”
Against a minimum wage hike to $8.25 next year. ”The fact is: The money doesn’t come off a magic money tree.”
Against marijuana decriminalization in any way. ”I don’t believe in legalization or decriminalization.”
He’s able to talk about bipartisan accomplishments because working with Democrats in New Jersey is imperative to any type of legislative progress, but there aren’t many core issues where Christie strays from the right. Rhetorically, he sounds much more moderate than he is once you run down the issues.
2. He will channel Dubya ’04
One overarching theme of Christie’s performance was that he’s real. New Jersey real. Not blow-dried, consultant-packaged politician “real.” ”I’ve looked them in the eye and told them the truth,” he said at the start of the debate when asked about some of the provocative language he’s used to describe and denegrate political foes. ”I am who I am and I’m not going to change,” he said later. This reminded me of the argument George W. Bush deployed in 2004: Ya may not agree with me all of the time, but ya know where I stand. I’m sure-footed, dead certain. It’s not an exact parallel, but it’s hard to imagine Christie’s 2016 campaign not including a good does of “real talk”: ”I will be myself. I will tell you the truth,” he said.
3. He’s disciplined enough rein in the bravado.
The rap against Christie, of course, is that he’s too brash, strident and pugnacious for the pressure cooker of a national campaign, that he’ll eventually combust under the weight of his own veritable bravado. But Christie advisers point to the “Say something nice” question as evidence their boss can rein it in when need be and show statesman-like respect for his opponents. See the below exchange where Buono, the underdog, goes for the clever, but perhaps catty one-liner, whereas Christie opts for higher ground:
CBS News took note and characterized it this way: Buono quipped that Christie was ‘good on late night television,’ while Christie gave a long and serious answer saying Buono deserves credit for her service. ‘While we have policy agreements, I would never denigrate her service,’ he said.”
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Another state party has formally moved to thank Sen. Ted Cruz.
And this one is from Sen. Marco Rubio’s home state:
The state party’s caucus of state committeemen and committeewomen, who make up the governing executive committee of the party, voted by acclamation this afternoon during a meeting in Orlando to express their support for Cruz. If another high-level party committee approves the action Saturday, they’ll send letters to Cruz and others in Congress who voted with him thanking him for his actions.
The Republicans are gathered in Orlando for their annual Statesman’s Dinner, a fundraising dinner.
A written copy of the resolution wasn’t immediately available, but Bill Bunting, a state committeeman from Pasco, said the resolution was to “thank Ted Cruz and the ones who voted with him.”
It passed after only brief debate in the gathering.
The South Carolina state GOP was the first to pass a formal resolution supporting Cruz’s controversial efforts protesting the nation’s health care law.
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A red flag for Gov. Chris Christie is tucked into that new national 2016 Quinnipiac University survey this week.
Credit must go to an unnamed unaligned strategist, who writes Yellowhammer that Christie’s favorability rating among Republicans is downright alarming.
It’s 43 percent — just three points better than his 40 percent rating with Democrats and a point lower than his favorability among independents (44 percent). Among conservatives, Christie’s at 33 percent. Forty-nine (49 percent) of liberals view him favorably.
The strategist writes:
. . . The really intriguing numbers from Quinni are Christie’s fav/unfavs among GOP and cons, especially jarring next to his relatively good numbers with Ds and Is. He has real problems with the most likely voters in the primaries. And he is toast for caucus states. The Hug ain’t fading from memory. Seems to me he’s more likely to do a national version of Charlie Crist’s meltdown during his aborted Senate bid than make it to the point he can slide through the crease in a broken field. I don’t see a path for him even with two or possibly three significant candidates to his right. Lord help him if it gets to one-on-one. It’s a long way out still but unless he mends fences, he’s John Connally 1980 if he’s lucky. Looks like he has Mitt’s money men and list so he will raise some serious money, but he’s going to have trouble winning delegates.
Comparatively, Rand Paul’s ratings among Republicans and conservatives are demonstrably better than Christie’s.
Among GOPers, Rand is at 56 percent; among conservatives he’s at 51 percent favorability.
You can catch my initial 4 takeaways on the Quinnipiac survey here.
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