After the initial wave of chaos from Rep. Spencer Bachus’ retirement announcement, most of the would-be frontrunners opted out of the fight to become his successor.
From family concerns to apprehension about giving up a currently held seat, the reasons were plenty, but the results have left the 6th congressional district race wide open.
Here are the latest rumors and rumblings we’re hearing from around the 6th District:
In alphabetical order
Scott Beason
Status: Leaning out
Gardendale’s Tea Party champion wants to take another crack at Congress, and insiders say he has polled the District to see where the race would start. Although Yellowhammer hasn’t viewed the poll, sources who have say Beason was encouraged by some of the numbers.
The problem for the firebrand senator is fundraising. In spite of efforts to woo major donors, things don’t seem to be coming together. One telltale sign is that Beason’s longtime campaign consultant has decided to work for another candidate considering this race because he’ll probably have more resources.
In the end, Beason will most likely return to the senate. There’s a good argument to be made that he’s far more influential there as one of 35 than he would be in the U.S. House as one of 435.
John Blackwell
Status: 99% in
“It is time to stop Obama’s spending spree and tighten Washington’s belt,” Blackwell said in a release last week announcing he’s “considering” running in AL-06. Sounds a lot more like a candidate who is running than someone just considering.
Sources close to Blackwell say his campaign team is already in place and lining up support. A successful businessman who can self-fund is always the wildcard in a race like this. Blackwell fills that void in a big way. He’s the only name associated with AL-06 right now who can pump in a million bucks or more and not blink.
His presence in the race will also suck a ton of donors out of the camp of the next name on our list…
Paul DeMarco
Status: Almost certainly in
Barring something completely unforeseen, DeMarco is in. He has played it close to the vest publicly, but privately he’s been doing everything a sitting state representative has to do to gear up for a congressional run.
Blackwell’s surprise entrance was a major blow to DeMarco, who most people viewed as the frontrunner after his legislative colleagues decided to sit the race out. His star has dimmed in the eyes of some in the business community in recent years because he hasn’t emerge as a leader in the legislature or in Jefferson County battles.
However, he has proven to be a relentless campaigner and maintains close relationships with a solid base of donors who will make him a formidable candidate Over the Mountain.
Chad Mathis
Status: Announced candidate
Mathis announced a very respectable list of campaign staffers and consultants last week. He’s already hitting the road going door-to-door in the district.
Great father/daughter team out knocking on doors this morning! #AL06 #alpolitics pic.twitter.com/jqMsOdq1BI
— Chad Mathis, MD (@DrChadMathis) October 12, 2013
It’s impossible to tell this early if the Mathis campaign has the resources to compete to the finish line, but he will have the support of at least some grassroots conservatives. They like the idea of sending a conservative doctor to D.C. to fight ObamaCare.
Gaston Mooney
Status: Unknown
“Who?”
Yea, that’s the same thing we thought last week when a congressional staffer told Yellowhammer that Mooney was considering a run.
Gaston was a D.C. staffer for Sen. Jim DeMint until DeMint resigned to become the president of The Heritage Foundation. Gaston now works Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who took over for DeMint as chairman of the Senate Steering Committee.
Those are some pretty strong conservative credentials, but how would they translate into a District where he currently does not live?
Gaston’s family resides in Shelby County.
His dad, Arnold Mooney, is a Republican candidate for Alabama House of Representatives in District 43. He was chairman of Rep. Mary Sue McClurkin’s last several campaigns before she announced her retirement in August.
Gary Palmer
Status: Making preparations to run
It looks like an announcement from Palmer is imminent.
A conservative think tank head making the jump to congress is not without precedent. Current U.S. Senator Jeff Flake, R-AZ, was executive director of the Goldwater Institute in Arizona before being elected to the U.S. House in 2000 with the help of the Club for Growth.
Could Palmer follow in Flake’s footsteps? Maybe.
He will have unique access to fundraising circles outside of Alabama due in large part to his involvement with the State Policy Network, a nationwide web of free-market think tanks who rely on conservative donors to back their operations. He also has a strong network of Policy Institute donors inside the state, but it will be worth watching to see how that translates to a campaign.
Cliff Sims
Status: Squarely on the fence
“The 6th district needs someone who’s willing to stand toe-to-toe with special interests and entrenched politicians like Nancy Pelosi and not blink,” Sims told AL.com’s George Talbot shortly after Bachus’ retirement announcement. “I’ve proven beyond a shadow of a doubt with Yellowhammer that I’m willing to do that on a daily basis.”
He then had this to say after last week’s deal to end the government shutdown:
But even though he’s been open about considering a run, giving up day-to-day operations of Yellowhammer and his almost-daily talk radio slot would be a heavy price to pay to jump in what will likely be a crowded race.
No one outside his Homewood residence seems to know what he’s really planning.
Michael Staley
Status: Has feelers out
If 6th congressional district voters put continuity at the top of their list of priorities, Bachus’ chief of staff Michael Staley might be their guy.
Staley has put some feelers out in D.C. and with key people in the 6th district telling them he’s considering moving to Alabama to run for his current boss’s seat.
Staley is a basically a complete unknown to voters in the district. He does, however, have strong relationships with the business community and D.C.-based donors due to his time running Bachus’ office.
Follow Jeff on Twitter @Jeff_Poor
