CNN is out with new national 2016 polling Monday, the first set of numbers to be produced this fall.
Here are Yellowhammer’s 4 key takeaways:
- It’s a Christie-Rand race right now . . . There continues to be no strong front-runner on the Republican side, but New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are at the top of the pack and separated by just 4 points (17%-13%) in a survey that has a margin of error of 4.5 points. (This phenomenon was forecast by The RUN earlier this month.) Yes, Rep. Paul Ryan is second. But that number is likely a bit inflated because of his presence on the 2012 ticket and the Wisconsin congressman has done little this year to show he’s intent on a 2016 bid.
- Rubio’s in single digits . . . As CNN’s Paul Steinhauser notes, the Florida freshman was registering double-digit numbers in other polling earlier this year. Now Marco Rubio is at 9 percent, at the bottom of the pack with Ted Cruz, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum. A summer consumed with immigration has taken its toll. The next phase will be watching how he plans to rebound.
- Ryan has the most even support . . . If Paul Ryan were to run, one of his arguments could be that he’s a candidate who satisfies the conservative base but is also able to reach out to swing voters. The CNN-ORC survey finds that of all the Republicans, Ryan’s support is the most balanced between conservatives and moderates. Ryan nets 17 percent of moderates and 16 percent of conservatives — a gap of only 1 point. Compare that to Christie’s 20 point gap between moderate (28 percent) and conservative (8 percent) support and Paul’s 7 point gap (moderates: 9 percent, conservatives 16 percent).
- Liberals prefer Warren over Biden . .. On the Democratic side, it’s still Hillary and all the rest — her lead over the vice president is 55 points. But the crosstabs reveal the potency of an Elizabeth Warren candidacy with the left. Warren is third overall and in most categories, but among liberals she beats Biden 12 percent to 5 percent.
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